Energy Tribune

For the past eight years, Jennifer L. Turner has been director of the China Environment Forum at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. She received her Ph.D. in public policy and comparative politics from Indiana University in 1997. Her dissertation examined local government innovation in implementing water policies in China. She corresponded with ET managing editor Robert Bryce via e-mail in early March.

ET: What are the biggest environmental threats now facing China?

JLT: If we are talking in terms of environmental media, air and water pollution represent the biggest threats to the health and well-being of China’s people and economy and coal are the source of 70 percent of China’s energy – are the main sources of air pollution in China’s cities. Air pollution is causing between 300, 000 [and] 400,000 early deaths per year from respiratory illnesses. Asthma rates are skyrocketing. There are also regional and global impacts of China’s air pollution, such as [the] SO2 that is causing about 50 percent of the acid rain problems in Japan and Korea.

In terms of water, half of China’s rivers are grade IV or V or worse, which means the water should not be used for drinking, agriculture, or industry. China is the number one producer and consumer of pesticides, which are often over-applied in fields, causing toxic run-off into waterways throughout the country. China’s three largest lakes are facing extreme eutrophication problems from agricultural run-off.

China has excellent environmental laws on the books, but extremely poor enforcement, so the biggest threat to the country’s environment is China’s weak environmental governance structure.

ET: Do you think that environmental problems will ultimately be one of the factors that slows China’s rapid expansion?

JLT: Environmental problems are already costing the country somewhere between 8 to 12 percent of their yearly GDP. There are also other costs that are more difficult to quantify, namely social stability, and that is what could cause the economic slowdown. In 2005, the Chinese government reported that 85,000 protests of 100 or more people took place in China. A large number of these were related to pollution problems, particularly over water quality in rural areas.

ET: Environmental issues aside, do you see any factors that might slow China’s expansion?

JLT: There are two big obstacles to China’s continued expansion, which the government and the Communist Party already acknowledge as critical sources of social instability: corruption and social inequity. These two are obviously linked. Corruption is one of the drivers of poor environmental quality. Remember the 85,000 protests I mentioned? Many of these protests, if not all, are linked to corruption by some local officials (e.g., land grabs, pollution, over-taxation).

ET: China will surpass the U.S. in greenhouse gas emissions by 2009. Is China doing enough to deal with this issue? Is there anything that the U.S. or other Western countries can (or should) be doing with regard to China’s emissions?

JLT: On a per capita basis, Chinese use about 11 percent of the energy we do in the United States. Thus, while China has the world’s fastest growing economy it remains an energy-starved country that is dependent on low-grade coal. Energy demand is spurred by the growing middle class, who are behind the massive growth in personal car purchases.